# Is Trading on Rollbacks Effective? Part 7. New Zealand

24 June 2022 506

Previous studies of rollback trading have revealed the usefulness of this strategy for a number of economic events in six countries. Let's see if trading on rollbacks is suitable for New Zealand events.

Hypothesis

A positive change in the newly published economic indicator compared to the value for the previous period forms a trading signal for a growth in the quote of a financial instrument. A negative change in the indicator, in turn, generates a signal to reduce the quote.

Trading on rollbacks is profitable for New Zealand events.

If the current value of the indicator is greater than the previous one, then an order is placed

If the current value of the indicator is less than the previous one, then an order is placed

SellLimit = Open1 + k*Open1

where k is the percentage of rollback from the opening price at the time of the publication of the Open1 indicator,

k = 0,05; 0,1; 0,15; 0,2; 0,25; 0,3.

We wait for 8 hours. If the pending order has not worked, we cancel it.

Closing a position:

1) on close 4, 8, 12, 16, 20, 32 of candlesticks after entering the market;

2) by order TakeProfit (TP):

• ТР (1) = BuyLimit * (1 + k)
• ТР (1,5) = BuyLimit * (1 + 1,5*k)
• ТР (2) = BuyLimit * (1 + 2*k)
• ТР (2,5) = BuyLimit * (1 + 2,5*k)
• ТР (3) = BuyLimit * (1 + 3*k)

for selling:

• ТР (1) = SellLimit * (1 - k)
• ТР (1,5) = SellLimit * (1 - 1,5*k)
• ТР (2) = SellLimit * (1 - 2*k)
• ТР (2,5) = SellLimit * (1 - 2,5*k)
• ТР (3) = SellLimit * (1 - 3*k)

If TakeProfit has not worked within 8 hours after the publication of the indicator, then we close the position ourselves at the end of these 8 hours.

A total of 66 entry/exit combinations.

Data used

Economic calendar: MarketCheese

Timeframe: 15 minutes (M15)

Historical data: 01/01/2015 – 09/30/2020

Country New Zealand: 18 events, including 7 important ones (detailed list is in the appendix)

5 currency pairs with NZD have been taken as financial instruments:

• NZDUSD
• EURNZD
• NZDJPY
• AUDNZD

A total of 8,308 market entries

#### Analysis of the obtained results

Closing a position on close 4, 8, 12, 16, 20, 32 of candlestick after entering the market

We will evaluate the results according to the following criteria:

• The rate of return reflects the average percentage of changes in the quotations of financial instruments at the time of closing positions in percentage. A positive value of the rate of return indicates the profitability of the strategy, negative - about the loss.

Let's accept the notations for combinations of entry and exit from the market by the number of the candlestick:

 Exit \ Entry 0 – pending order 4 0-4 8 0-8 12 0-12 16 0-16 20 0-20 32 0-32

Candlestick 4 - exit from the market an hour after the entry.

Candlestick 8 - exit from the market 2 hours after the entry, and so on.

The results are presented in diagrams:

The rate of return of the rollback trading strategy for all events in New Zealand does not reach a significant value of 0.09% modulo with rollback of 0.25% and exit from the market 8 hours after entry.

In the group of important events, a significant rate of return has been noted for any percentage of rollback and exit from the market 8 hours after entry, as well as for a small rollback of 0.05% and exit from the market 5 hours after entry.

Let's see which of the events and at what combination of the percentage of rollback and exit from the market have shown a rate of return close to 0.09% and higher:

k = 0,05 %

 Event The best Entry - Exit Rate of return of the best Entry - Exit Number of entries GDP (YoY) 0--20 0,283 55 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 0--32 0,238 26 CPI (YoY) 0--20 0,212 47 GDP (QoQ) 0--32 0,190 61 Unemployment Rate 0--32 0,141 60 NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ) 0--32 0,114 59 Retail Sales (QoQ) 0--20 0,113 44 Employment Change (QoQ) 0--32 0,102 59

k = 0,1 %

 Event The best Entry - Exit Rate of return of the best Entry - Exit Number of entries GDP (YoY) 0--20 0,305 44 CPI (YoY) 0--20 0,181 35 GDP (QoQ) 0--20 0,173 50 NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ) 0--32 0,169 47 Unemployment Rate 0--32 0,142 50 Retail Sales (QoQ) 0--32 0,127 38 Employment Change (QoQ) 0--32 0,107 52 Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) 0--32 0,087 150

k = 0,15 %

 Event The best Entry - Exit Rate of return of the best Entry - Exit Number of entries GDP (YoY) 0--20 0,401 38 GDP (QoQ) 0--20 0,249 45 NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ) 0--32 0,246 39 Unemployment Rate 0--32 0,204 43 CPI (YoY) 0--20 0,198 31 Employment Change (QoQ) 0--32 0,154 44 Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) 0--32 0,149 125

k = 0,2 %

 Event The best Entry - Exit Rate of return of the best Entry - Exit Number of entries GDP (YoY) 0--20 0,431 28 GDP (QoQ) 0--16 0,230 41 Unemployment Rate 0--32 0,195 31 NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ) 0--32 0,182 29 Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) 0--32 0,179 105 Employment Change (QoQ) 0--32 0,161 36 CPI (YoY) 0--32 0,121 24 Business NZ PMI 0--20 0,101 78

k = 0,25 %

 Event The best Entry - Exit Rate of return of the best Entry - Exit Number of entries GDP (YoY) 0--20 0,541 24 GDP (QoQ) 0--20 0,301 39 NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ) 0--32 0,228 24 Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) 0--32 0,213 86 Business NZ PMI 0--32 0,174 65 Unemployment Rate 0--16 0,171 24 Employment Change (QoQ) 0--32 0,129 32 CPI (YoY) 0--32 0,107 22

k = 0,3 %

 Event The best Entry - Exit Rate of return of the best Entry - Exit Number of entries NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ) 0--32 0,256 21 Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) 0--32 0,189 76 GDP (QoQ) 0--16 0,133 34 Employment Change (QoQ) 0--32 0,121 25 Westpac Consumer Sentiment 0--32 0,100 18 Business NZ PMI 0--32 0,092 40 CPI (YoY) 0--4 0,091 18

The following events have shown a significant rate of return:

• GDP (YoY) – with a rollback percentage from 0.05 to 0.25 and exit from the market 5 hours after entry.
• GDP (QoQ)with a rollback percentage of 0.05 and exit from the market 8 hours after entry; with rollback percentages of 0.1, 0.15 and 0.25 and exit from the market 5 hours after entry; with a rollback percentage of 0.2 and 0.3 and exit from the market 4 hours after entry.
• RBNZ Interest Rate Decision – only with a small rollback percentage of 0.05 and exit from the market 8 hours after entry.
• CPI (YoY) – with a rollback percentage of up to 0.15 and exit from the market 5 hours after entry; with a rollback percentage of 0.2 and 0.25 and exit from the market 8 hours after entry; and with a rollback percentage of 0.3 and exit from the market 1 hour after entry.
• Unemployment Rate – with a rollback percentage of up to 0.2 and exiting the market 8 hours after entry, as well as with a rollback percentage of 0.25 and exiting the market 4 hours after entry.
• Employment Change (QoQ) – for any rollback and exit from the market 8 hours after entry.
• NZIER Business Confidence (QoQ) – for any rollback and exit from the market 8 hours after entry.
• Retail Sales (QoQ) – with a rollback percentage of 0.05 and exit from the market 5 hours after entry; with a rollback percentage of 0.1 and exit from the market 8 hours after entry.
• Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) – with a rollback percentage of 0.1 and exit from the market 8 hours after entry.
• Business NZ PMI – with a rollback percentage of 0.2 and exit from the market 5 hours after entry; with a rollback percentage of 0.25 and 0.3 and exit from the market 8 hours after entry.
• Westpac Consumer Sentiment – with a rollback percentage of 0.3 and exit from the market 8 hours after entry.

At the same time, in most cases, with a growth in the rollback percentage, the rate of return also increases.

These events are worth paying attention to.

Closing a position on a TakeProfit order

The Take Profit orders are placed because there is a possibility that, having rolled back after the publication of the event, the price will return to the opening level.

We will evaluate the results according to three criteria:

• The rate of return reflects the average percentage of changes in the quotations of financial instruments at the time of closing positions in percentage. A positive value of the rate of return indicates the profitability of the strategy, negative - about the loss.
• % TP - the probability of triggering a Take Profit order, %
• SPP - share of profitable positions, %

The results are presented in diagrams:

Recall that in the first part of our study of trading on rollbacks when exiting the market on a TakeProfit order, we have settled on a rollback percentage of k = 0.1 and Take Profit coefficients: TP = 1.5 and TP = 2.

The rollback percentage of 0.1% has been chosen due to higher rate of return, the probability of triggering Take Profit orders and the share of profitable positions.

Similarly, Take Profit (TP) coefficients equal to 1.5 and 2 have been chosen.

The rollback percentage of 0.05 has been excluded from consideration due to the widening spread at the time of the publication of events, the delay in reflecting data in the economic calendar, and, as a result, the low rate of return of the strategy.

For the coefficient TP = 1, the following has been observed.

After the publication of events, the price may roll back in the direction opposite to the economic meaning of the published events. However, within the next 8 hours, it tends to return to the opening price at the time of the publication of events. And the lower the price rollback percentage, the more likely such a result is.

The results of events in New Zealand also confirm these findings.

A significant rate of return for the selected parameters will also be considered a rate of return of 0.04% or more.

Let's see for which of the events in New Zealand the effectiveness of rollback trading has been identified.

Let's summarize.

The model of trading on rollbacks and exiting the market 8 hours after entry is suitable for the following events:

• RBNZ Interest Rate Decision;
• GDP (QoQ);
• Unemployment Rate;
• Employment Change (QoQ);
• Retail Sales (QoQ);
• Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM);
• CPI (YoY);
• Westpac Consumer Sentiment.

The model of trading on rollbacks and exiting the market 5 hours after entry is suitable for the following events:

• GDP (YoY);
• CPI (YoY);
• Retail Sales (QoQ);
• GDP (QoQ);

The model of trading on rollbacks and exiting the market 4 hours after entry is suitable for the events:

• GDP (QoQ);
• Unemployment Rate in New Zealand.

The model of trading on rollbacks and exiting the market an hour after entry is suitable for the event:

• CPI (YoY).

The model of trading on rollbacks and exiting the market on a Take Profit order is suitable for the following events in New Zealand:

1. Important events:

• RBNZ Interest Rate Decision;
• Employment Change in New Zealand (QoQ);
• CPI in New Zealand (YoY);
• Retail Sales in New Zealand (QoQ).

• Unemployment Rate in New Zealand;
• Employment Change in New Zealand (QoQ);
• Participation Rate.

3. Consumption and inflation:

• Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY);
• CPI in New Zealand (YoY);
• Retail Sales in New Zealand (QoQ)

4. Balance and GDP:

• GDP (YoY).

The model of trading on rollbacks and exiting the market on a Take Profit order is not suitable for the following events in New Zealand, which belong to the group of important ones:

• GDP of New Zealand (QoQ);
Conclusion

After the publication of events, the price may roll back in the direction opposite to the economic meaning of the published events. However, during the next 8 hours, it tends to return to the opening price at the time of the publication of events. And the lower the price rollback percentage, the more likely such a result is.

The effectiveness of rollback trading for events in New Zealand has been revealed.

Detailed results are shown in the Appendix:

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