A Reuters survey indicates the eurozone economy remains resilient despite potential US tariffs. While the threat of 30% duties on EU goods poses risks, economists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep rates unchanged at 2.0% at its July 24 meeting.
Barclays analysts expect the ECB to continue cutting borrowing costs in the second half of the year. Despite ECB President Christine Lagarde's suggestions that the monetary easing cycle might be nearing its end, strategists anticipate 25 basis-point rate cuts in both September and December.
ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann has called for a halt to further monetary easing until autumn, arguing that the eurozone should keep its current interest rate on hold to safeguard against resurgent inflation.
The Bank of Spain has lowered its 2025 economic growth forecast for the country, citing heightened economic uncertainty due to US trade policies. In a statement yesterday, central bank governor Jose Luis Escriva announced an expected GDP growth rate of 2.4%, down from the March projection of 2.7%.
Sentiment among Germany’s population continues deteriorating, according to a Boston Consulting Group (BCG) survey. The study reveals 62% of Germans now hold negative views on the country’s economic and political conditions, marking an increase of 10 percentage points from the previous year.
The Bundesbank released a pessimistic forecast for Germany’s GDP growth. The central bank expects the eurozone’s largest economy to stagnate for at least another year, despite the future increase in government spending.
Macquarie analysts forecast further upside for the euro-dollar pair, citing diverging monetary policies between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed).
The latest interest rate changes aim to help the European Central Bank (ECB) achieve its medium-term inflation target, President Christine Lagarde said. She believes that the latest monetary policy decision was "well calibrated".
Andrea Nahles, head of Germany's Federal Employment Agency, has warned that the country could lose up to 90,000 jobs by the end of this year. She attributes this potential decline primarily to current US trade policies.
Isabel Schnabel, a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB), stated that the current moment presents an ideal opportunity to strengthen the euro's position. These remarks overlap with statements from other policymakers, including ECB President Christine Lagarde.
An increase of the indicator value may contribute to the rise in quotes of EUR.
The European currency is one of the world's major monetary units. It has a crucial role to play in the global economy. Market participants constantly need to identify trends and forecast fluctuations in the euro exchange rate in order to make reasonable trading decisions.
Market manipulation by large investors has a significant impact on the exchange rate of the European currency. Their actions can both stabilize and greatly shake the money market. These may include:
Investment activity monitoring can help to understand and predict trends in the movement of the European currency rates.
Forecasting the value of the euro is a challenging task. There are many reasons for this, including geopolitical and economic risks that make foreign exchange markets particularly susceptible to change. Minor political instability or financial crisis in certain countries may have a significant impact on the value of the European currency, emphasizing the need to carefully consider these factors when developing investment strategies.
Successful trading the Eurozone currency requires a comprehensive approach. Analyzing global political and economic circumstances, taking into account the influence of traders, and assessing risks are integral parts of the decision-making process for opening trading positions.
