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No change of the indicator value may reduce the volatility of the related markets.

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Barclays sees US recession risk fading due to warming relations with China

Barclays has revised its US economic growth forecast upward, ruling out the possibility of a year-end recession. The bank's decision comes as trade tensions between Washington and Beijing ease.

16 May 2025
Barclays sees US recession risk fading due to warming relations with China
ECB's Kazaks noted that rate-cutting cycle is nearing its end

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council Member Martins Kazaks, analyzing the eurozone inflation outlook, suggested during a CNBC interview that the rate-cutting cycle may be nearing completion.

16 May 2025
ECB's Kazaks noted that rate-cutting cycle is nearing its end
Trade tensions combined with high debt pose risks to EU economy — Luis De Guindos

Luis de Guindos, the vice president of the European Central Bank (ECB), named three main risks to the eurozone economy. In his opinion, these are global trade tensions, financial market volatility, and high government debt.

16 May 2025
Trade tensions combined with high debt pose risks to EU economy — Luis De Guindos
European Union. Trade Balance. The value of the indicator has increased from 24.8B to 36.8B

An increase of the indicator value may contribute to the rise in quotes of EUR.

16 May 2025
France’s unemployment rate rose to 7.4% at start of 2025

France’s unemployment rate increased at the start of the year, adding to signs of a slowdown in the EU’s second-largest economy, even before US trade tariffs further darkened its outlook.

16 May 2025
France’s unemployment rate rose to 7.4% at start of 2025
German tax revenues may decline by $37.3 billion due to economic fragility

According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the German government is projected to receive 33.3 billion euro (about $37.3 billion) less in tax revenue over the five-year period through 2029 due to economic volatility.

16 May 2025
German tax revenues may decline by $37.3 billion due to economic fragility
ECB hopes to reach agreement on digital euro among EU countries by early 2026

The European Central Bank (ECB) hopes to reach a political agreement among the EU countries by early 2026 to issue a digital euro. The regulator will then need 2–3 years to launch the currency, says ECB board member Piero Cipollone.

16 May 2025
ECB hopes to reach agreement on digital euro among EU countries by early 2026
China’s trade surplus with EU hit record $90 billion

In the first four months of this year, China’s trade surplus with the EU reached $90 billion, as goods flows changed due to US tariff policies. Chinese shipments to Europe so far in 2025 are the second-highest on record.

15 May 2025
China’s trade surplus with EU hit record $90 billion
EU’s economic growth slowed while employment level holds steady

The eurozone economy expanded at a slower pace than expected in the first quarter, with employment level holding steady. That means the EU keeps creating jobs despite years of sluggish growth.

15 May 2025
EU’s economic growth slowed while employment level holds steady
Uncertainty over US tariff policy weighs on European companies’ outlook

Major European companies are facing turbulence from US tariffs. Despite the recent trade truce between the US and China, investors remain wary as uncertainty persists, Reuters reports.

15 May 2025
Uncertainty over US tariff policy weighs on European companies’ outlook

The European currency is one of the world's major monetary units. It has a crucial role to play in the global economy. Market participants constantly need to identify trends and forecast fluctuations in the euro exchange rate in order to make reasonable trading decisions.

Key drivers of the euro are the following:

  • Macroeconomic indicators such as consumer price indices (CPI), estimates of gross domestic product (GDP), and central bank decisions;
  • Political variables such as geopolitical stability and government policies.

Market manipulation by large investors has a significant impact on the exchange rate of the European currency. Their actions can both stabilize and greatly shake the money market. These may include:

  • large injections or withdrawals of currency from the market;
  • change in the general mood among investors, which often depends on economic and political conditions.

Investment activity monitoring can help to understand and predict trends in the movement of the European currency rates.

Forecasting the value of the euro is a challenging task. There are many reasons for this, including geopolitical and economic risks that make foreign exchange markets particularly susceptible to change. Minor political instability or financial crisis in certain countries may have a significant impact on the value of the European currency, emphasizing the need to carefully consider these factors when developing investment strategies.

Successful trading the Eurozone currency requires a comprehensive approach. Analyzing global political and economic circumstances, taking into account the influence of traders, and assessing risks are integral parts of the decision-making process for opening trading positions.