Bernstein expects gas supercycle to begin in US

Bernstein analysts are forecasting the beginning of a supercycle in the US natural gas industry, driven by strong consumption growth and tight supply. The company expects total demand for natural gas in the United States to increase from approximately 120 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2024 to around 148 bcfd by 2030.

This upswing will mainly be driven by an expected surge in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and rising electricity consumption, particularly by data centers. According to the Bernstein report, US LNG exports will increase by 10 bcfd by the end of the decade. Electricity consumption will climb by 8 bcfd.

Meanwhile, the organization's analysts believe that supply growth of the fuel is more limited. They estimate that production capacity in the major gas-producing regions of Haynesville and Midcontinent is currently below the levels needed to meet the growing demand through 2030.

This mismatch implies sustained gas price increases to $5 or more per million cubic feet, Bernstein predicts. In turn, this would cause demand to decline and incentivize producers to expand output.