7 July
Bloomberg poll: ECB monetary policy now hinges on US President's tariff decisions
Experts polled by Bloomberg forecast two more interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) this year—but warn that US tariff policy could ultimately dictate the central bank's moves. In their view, the US President's decisions may change the strategy of the European regulator and have a negative impact on the region's economic recovery.
The experts' baseline scenario suggests ECB rate cuts of 0.25% each in April and June and then a pause until the end of 2026. However, Donald Trump's first months in office proved how unpredictable his actions can be. Thus, the experts polled by the agency cannot rule out alternative scenarios.
According to AFS Interest analyst Arne Petimezas, Donald Trump has managed to establish control over ECB monetary policy through erratic import tariffs.
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