Bloomberg analyst says price gap between oil and gold signals possible recession

Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, noted the growing divergence between oil and gold prices. In his opinion, this trend signals further deterioration of economic conditions and a probability of a global recession.

Since the beginning of 2025, the cost of oil has fallen by nearly 21%, while the price of gold has risen by 26%. Consequently, the gap between the two has widened to nearly 50%. Last month, the price of the precious metal reached another historic high of $3,500 per ounce. These dynamics allow McGlone to suggest that gold is entering a growth trajectory which is similar to that of the crisis years of 2007 and 1935. According to the strategist, this trend is an unfavorable signal for the global economy.

He sees oil's low-price cure near $40 per barrel and gold's next resistance at about $4,000 per ounce. McGlone believes that the decline in the US stock market may be a major factor in achieving these goals. Consequently, the price of the main precious metal could reach parity with the S&P 500 index.