HSBC warns of Brent price risks as OPEC+ ramps up production

HSBC forecasts OPEC+ oil supply to grow further in the medium term. The cartel is expected to raise its production by 411,000 barrels per day in August and by 274,000 barrels per day in September, the bank says. These factors raise downward risks to HSBC’s outlook for Brent crude prices at $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025. 

Additionally, analysts project OPEC+ to regularly hike output from October to December and completely unwind voluntary cuts by the end of this year. 

The bank’s supply and demand model shows the oil market is likely to have a surplus of 300,000 to 900,000 barrels per day in 2026. Previous forecasts suggested an oversupply of 200,000 to 700,000 barrels per day.

Meanwhile, the oil market is likely to balance in the second and third quarters as crude demand rises in summer and peaks in July and August, HSBC notes. However, accelerated OPEC+ production increases will result in a larger surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025 than previously projected.