18 June 2025 | Other

Decline in Japan's export raises recession risks amid US tariff imposition

Decline in Japan's export raises recession risks amid US tariff imposition

Japan's exports declined for the first time in eight months. The trump administration’s tariffs have negatively impacted global trade, raising risks of a technical recession in the Asian nation following an economic contraction earlier this year, Bloomberg reports.

According to Japan's Ministry of Finance, exports declined by 1.7% year-on-year in value terms in May, primarily due to reduced shipments of automobiles and steel.

Japan's imports dropped by 7.7%, with the sharpest declines seen in crude oil and coal shipments. The trade deficit stood at 637.6 billion yen ($4.39 billion).

Earlier, US President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Japanese vehicles and auto parts imports, along with a baseline 10% tax on all other Japanese goods. In early June, American administration doubled steel and aluminum duties to 50%.

The tariffs will remain in effect as Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba failed to reach an agreement after two months of negotiations, Bloomberg notes.

Overall exports to the US fell 11.1% while imports slumped 13.5%, resulting in a trade surplus of 451.7 billion yen ($3.11 billion).

Anton Volkov MarketCheese
Period: 26.07.2026 Expectation: 1600 pips
Buying AUDCAD from support level
26 June 2026 53
Period: 03.07.2026 Expectation: 1310 pips
GBPUSD is still poised for further downside
26 June 2026 33
Brent sell
Period: 03.07.2026 Expectation: 500 pips
Higher supply and weaker demand is likely to push Brent into red zone by weekend
26 June 2026 23
Period: 26.07.2026 Expectation: 3100 pips
Invest in USDCAD up to 1.45000
26 June 2026 30
Period: 02.07.2026 Expectation: 19500 pips
Selling ETHUSD with $1,585 in view following short-lived recovery
25 June 2026 46
Period: 31.07.2026 Expectation: 220 pips
Buying AUDCAD up to 0.9837
25 June 2026 27
Go to forecasts