OECD lowers global GDP growth forecast due to impact of Trump's trade policy on US economy

According to the latest estimates from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), global GDP growth is expected to slow from 3.3% last year to 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026. In March, the organization predicted increases of 3.1% this year and 3% next year.

The OECD stated that the outlook could worsen if protectionist policies in the US intensify. Such an approach would further fuel inflation, disrupt supply chains, and cause turmoil in financial markets. If Washington raised bilateral tariffs by 10 percentage points compared to current rates, global economic growth would be about 0.3% lower within two years.

The organization has also significantly reduced its forecast for US GDP growth for this year and next. It now expects the country's economy to grow by only 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively, based on the assumption that the tariffs introduced in mid-May will remain in force.

The OECD notes that higher import prices will reduce the purchasing power of American consumers and uncertainty in economic policy will hold back corporate investment. Drastic tax and spending cuts will increase the US budget deficit to 8% of GDP by 2026.