5 June | Dollar

Sharp drop in US business activity raises recession fears — AICPA

Sharp drop in US business activity raises recession fears — AICPA

US business optimism fell sharply in the second quarter, showing a significant deterioration from the first few months of the year. According to a May survey by the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants (AICPA), only 27% of executives are confident about the economic outlook for the next year.

Tom Hood, an executive vice president at the AICPA, noted that companies are acting cautiously by delaying investments and hiring. Growing uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's trade policies and new tariffs is forcing businesses to adjust their growth plans. As a result, expected revenue growth has fallen to its lowest level since the pandemic, at just 1%, while projected business losses reached 0.3% amid a drop in expansion plans.

Tensions with China renewed after the US President accused Beijing of violating the agreement have further reinforced negative expectations. More than a third of surveyed executives now expect a recession before the end of the year, while one in five believe the economy has already fallen into it.

Period: 05.09.2025 Expectation: 900 pips
AUDCAD loses momentum near channel resistance
29 August 2025 39
Period: 05.09.2025 Expectation: 900 pips
Inverse head and shoulders pattern to form upon GBPUSD break of 1.358
29 August 2025 46
Period: 30.11.2025 Expectation: 2800 pips
USDJPY set to weaken in medium term
29 August 2025 25
Brent sell
Period: 05.09.2025 Expectation: 200 pips
Brent declines amid growing inventories and potential production increases
29 August 2025 47
Period: 05.09.2025 Expectation: 600 pips
Buying USDCAD on divergent data from US and Canada
29 August 2025 25
Period: 30.11.2025 Expectation: 3000 pips
Tesla shares to get boost on breaking $370
28 August 2025 46
Go to forecasts