Number of economists predicting US to fall into recession is growing – Bloomberg

According to the latest Bloomberg survey of economists, the US economy is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. A similar survey conducted in March suggested an increase of 2% and 1.9% respectively. At the same time, the average projection of forecasters regarding the probability of recession in the country was increased to 45% from 30% stated in March.

Trump's decision to impose 145% tariffs on China and at least 10% duties on most other countries has led many analysts to expect a sharp slowdown in the US GDP growth. As Bloomberg notes, some are projecting recession as soon as this year.

As for the country's inflation estimates, the survey's median forecast implies a rise in the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index to 3.2% by the end of 2025, up from 2.7% in the March survey. The core PCE, which excludes food and energy costs, is projected to reach 3.3%. 

According to Deutsche Bank's Brett Ryan, to boost growth of the US economy, trade tensions need to be promptly resolved. He points out that the current environment is having a negative impact on consumer and business sentiment.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its initial estimate of GDP for the first quarter on April 30.