US dollar to continue declining in second half of 2025 — UBS

The American dollar lost 11% in the first half of 2025. Analysts at UBS forecast the greenback to fall further, with US macroeconomic data being the driving force. 

At the moment, expectations of the country’s GDP growth have already weakened. Besides, the dollar is now reflecting sharply lower US yields compared to the rest of the world. Hence, a further decline in the greenback may be less pronounced, UBS notes.

The bank’s analysts project US GDP expansion to be slightly less than 1% quarter-on-quarter in the period from July to September, and to be below 1% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. They note that despite weak forecasts, the consensus expectations of economists have already been shaped. At the same time, they are unlikely to be revised further down. 

With high fiscal challenges and lackluster economic growth in the US, the dollar is projected to suffer more losses in the second half of this year. Macroeconomic data from the United States will determine the dynamics of the greenback during the period, analysts at UBS say.