Changing seasonality of oil demand may cause market decline in Q4 2025 — Bloomberg

According to Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas, the energy segment has undergone a significant shift unnoticed by many people, which may seriously affect the dynamics of oil demand.

For example, the increasing influence of China and India as the world's leading fuel consumers has led to a shift in seasonality. It was traditionally believed that global oil demand reaches its annual peak with the onset of winter in the Northern Hemisphere. However, by the current moment, the increase in fuel consumption and prices is mainly seen in the third quarter. This year, according to Blas estimates, the global demand for oil in the third quarter will be 500 thousand barrels per day higher than in the fourth quarter of the year.

At the same time, the market is seeing an increase in oil supply. OPEC+ member countries are abandoning previously established production cuts, while non-OPEC producers, especially Brazil, Guyana and Canada, are seeking to increase output. So far, the market is absorbing the extra barrels without prices falling.

However, as Blas warns, the expected slowdown in consumption and strong supply threaten to create a significant surplus in the fourth quarter and put serious pressure on oil prices.