25 January 2023 | Other

Profitability of oil refining in the U.S. is increasing due to the plant downtime

Earlier this week, the profitability of oil refining in the U.S. reached a 3-month high. It is likely to rise even further, as the refinery downtime affects fuel supplies.

The crack spread, or the difference between the prices of a barrel of crude oil and a barrel of oil products produced from it, hit the level of $42.4 on Tuesday. That is the highest since October 2022. The average level for January over the past five years is about $15.6.

Due to several reasons, the current refinery maintenance season might last much longer than previously. First, PBF Energy's Chalmette refinery suspended its diesel production because of a recent fire. Second, Exxon Mobil's Baytown refinery will be shut down for maintenance. Moreover, many U.S. Gulf Coast plants are still not working at their full capacity due to the consequences of the winter storm in December.

The situation was also affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, due to which a number of overhauls were postponed. They are planned for the spring of 2023, therefore, the amount of repair work at refineries might increase. All these factors combined have a strong impact on fuel supplies. However, U.S. gasoline stocks are already down by about 10%, and diesel stocks are down by about 20%.

Company MarketCheese
Period: 19.09.2025 Expectation: 950 pips
GBPUSD is correcting after testing resistance
Yesterday at 10:29 AM 193
Gold buy
Period: 31.12.2025 Expectation: 2400 pips
Buying gold from $3,450 support
Yesterday at 09:29 AM 63
Period: 19.09.2025 Expectation: 1000 pips
AUDCAD poised for further gains after brief consolidation
Yesterday at 08:42 AM 192
Period: 31.10.2025 Expectation: 6000 pips
Selling SPX prior to seasonal correction
Yesterday at 08:27 AM 176
Brent sell
Period: 19.09.2025 Expectation: 188 pips
Supply glut puts pressure on Brent prices
Yesterday at 07:20 AM 193
Period: 18.09.2025 Expectation: 160 pips
Buying gas with $3.150 target amid completing correction
11 September 2025 302
Go to forecasts