Scenarios of lower oil and gas demand in the coming decades

U.K. oil company BP reported its annual energy outlook with three possible scenarios of events. Each of them forecasts lower oil and gas demand as renewable energy sources are increasingly adopted in production and transport electrification. The differences lie in the pace of these changes.

The most conservative scenario of the company suggests that global oil demand will not change significantly by 2050 and will be about 73 million barrels per day. This level is a quarter less than in 2019. According to BP, zero emissions will be reached by that time only if demand is less than a third of that amount. 

In any of BP's scenarios, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will play a key role, as its share of oil supply will range from 45% to 65%. OPEC's resilience will be provided by lower costs compared to rival producers (e.g., the U.S.).