31 March | S&P 500

Wall Street expects US stock market to decline following Trump's imposition of reciprocal tariffs

Wall Street expects US stock market to decline following Trump's imposition of reciprocal tariffs

US stocks have been falling in recent days due to US President Donald Trump's plans to impose 25% tariffs on automobile imports. Now investors are also trying to assess the scope of reciprocal duties, which are set to come into effect after April 2, and to understand whether they will result in a further escalation of trade tensions, Yahoo Finance says. 

Besides, the market is getting more concerned that worse-than-expected tariffs could slow down US economic growth. The current US administration's trade policy has already prompted several Wall Street companies to lower their year-end targets for the S&P 500.

Barclays expects the index to reach 5,900 at the end of 2025, down from the previous forecast of 6,600. According to the company’s estimates, the reciprocal duties will be 15%. If the eventual tariff rate lands higher, Barclays sees greater risks of US stocks declining and the country’s economy facing recession. 

Goldman Sachs’ poll shows investors expect a 9% reciprocal tariff rate. However, it may be twice as high as what the market assumes, the bank’s economists believe.

Elena Berseneva MarketCheese
Period: 01.05.2025 Expectation: 1000 pips
GBPUSD to test level of 1.34 again
25 April 2025 55
Brent sell
Period: 01.05.2025 Expectation: 660 pips
Trade uncertainty and excess OPEC+ supply are dragging down Brent
25 April 2025 40
Period: 29.04.2025 Expectation: 600 pips
USDCAD to head towards 1.39400 after rebounding from 1.38200
25 April 2025 35
Period: 02.05.2025 Expectation: 1669 pips
AUDCAD gains on potential easing of trade tensions between US and China
25 April 2025 35
Period: 30.04.2025 Expectation: 12000 pips
ETHUSD set to test upper boundary of downtrend channel
24 April 2025 90
Period: 25.04.2025 Expectation: 500 pips
AUDUSD to fall to 0.63000
24 April 2025 45
Go to forecasts