27 March | S&P 500

British bank Barclays has slashed its year-end S&P 500 target to 5,900

British bank Barclays has slashed its year-end S&P 500 target to 5,900

Barclays has slashed its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 5,900, now the lowest forecast among major financial institutions. The downgrade reflects concerns over President Trump’s tariff policies and weakening US economic data. The revised projection implies just 0.3% growth for the index in 2025. Barclays had previously set a target of 6,600, according to Business Insider.

In a research note, Barclays analysts assigned a 60% probability to a significant slowdown in economic activity of the United States in 2025, though they expect it to avoid a full recession. A more bearish scenario (15% probability) warns of escalating trade tensions potentially triggering a recession and driving the S&P 500 down to 4,400.

The bank has repeatedly flagged Trump’s tariffs as a critical threat to corporate earnings, the primary engine of US equity gains. In December, Barclays cautioned that heightened trade disputes could reduce S&P 500 earnings by 2.8%.

Anton Volkov MarketCheese
Period: 25.09.2025 Expectation: 200 pips
Buying natural gas with $3.230 target on seasonal demand and technical pullback
Today at 11:11 AM 10
Period: 22.09.2025 Expectation: 10000 pips
ETHUSD set to rise after descending channel breakout
Today at 10:37 AM 13
Brent sell
Period: 30.11.2025 Expectation: 700 pips
Selling Brent crude with target of $60 per barrel
Today at 10:32 AM 11
Gold sell
Period: 31.10.2025 Expectation: 40000 pips
Selling gold after Fed meeting
Today at 09:11 AM 34
Expectation: 1250 pips
Selling USDJPY with 146.450 target while anticipating BoJ rate decision
Today at 06:40 AM 52
Period: 17.09.2025 Expectation: 500 pips
Buying SPX on 0.5% Fed rate cut
Yesterday at 11:38 AM 195
Go to forecasts