British bank Barclays has slashed its year-end S&P 500 target to 5,900

Barclays has slashed its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 5,900, now the lowest forecast among major financial institutions. The downgrade reflects concerns over President Trump’s tariff policies and weakening US economic data. The revised projection implies just 0.3% growth for the index in 2025. Barclays had previously set a target of 6,600, according to Business Insider.

In a research note, Barclays analysts assigned a 60% probability to a significant slowdown in economic activity of the United States in 2025, though they expect it to avoid a full recession. A more bearish scenario (15% probability) warns of escalating trade tensions potentially triggering a recession and driving the S&P 500 down to 4,400.

The bank has repeatedly flagged Trump’s tariffs as a critical threat to corporate earnings, the primary engine of US equity gains. In December, Barclays cautioned that heightened trade disputes could reduce S&P 500 earnings by 2.8%.