Evercore ISI strategist lowers S&P 500 outlook as trade tensions escalate

Evercore ISI’s chief equity strategist Julian Emanuel reduced his S&P 500 forecast to 5,600 points amid escalating trade conflicts. The index has already declined 17% from its February peak after US President Donald Trump introduced unprecedented tariffs of at least 10% on all imported goods. This prompted the analyst to revise down his earlier 6,800-point target.

Emanuel also lowered his earnings per share (EPS) forecast for S&P 500 companies to 255 in 2025 and 272 in 2026. The strategist warned that the Trump administration's sweeping trade policy changes will inevitably generate significant economic turbulence.

Evercore ISI has become one of the latest major firms to revise its outlook for the S&P 500 amid growing uncertainty. Earlier, similar steps were taken by organizations like Goldman Sachs and RBC Capital Markets. They adjusted their forecasts, citing increased market volatility.