The Rise and Fall of Coffee Prices During the Day

Many traders wonder which hours of exchange operation are better suited for trading confidently while constantly increasing deposits, and during which it is best to refrain from making deals.

In this article, we will reveal the most appropriate timing for trading coffee futures and see when its price rises and when it falls.

We will examine the data for the following periods in the context of months:

• 30 minutes
• 1 hour
• 2 hours
• First half of the European session / second half
• First half of the American session / second half
• European session before American / all of the American session

We will also compare:

1. Price changes in the first hour (30 minutes) and price changes during the rest of the day;
2. Rise / fall of the price during the first hour (30 minutes) of the American session, and the rise / fall of the price during the rest of the day;
3. Price changes during the first hour and the last hour.

Trade in coffee futures takes place between 8 AM and 5 PM (UTC+0) 5 days a week.

So, let us find the best time of the day to trade coffee futures.

We will evaluate the results according to two criteria:

• Average price change - reflects the average percentage change in the quotes for coffee futures, in %. It is calculated with the following formula:

("30 minutes" closing price – "30 minutes" opening price) / "30 minutes" opening price * 100

• Share of cases with a price increase, in %.

Half-hour intervals:

The half-hour intervals mark the largest price growth at the opening of the European trading session, while the largest drop is observed in the period from 1.30pm to 2pm, at the opening of the American trading session.

1-hour intervals:

1-hour intervals mark the largest price growth at the opening of the European trading session and from 2pm to 3pm of the American trade session, while the largest drop is observed in the period from 1pm to 2pm at the intersection of the American and European sessions.

2-hour intervals:

2-hour intervals mark the largest price growth during the first 2 hours after the opening of the European trading session, and the largest drop falls into the period from 4pm to 5pm at the end of the American trading session.

Let us compare the results of trading sessions:

The first half of the European session shows an increase in the price, the second - a slight drop. The American session shows a fall in the price, and notably its second half shows a 2-fold drop in the price, compared to the first half.

By comparing the trading results by session, we can see that during the European trading session there is an increase in prices, and during the American session there is a fall.

The price rise in the first hour of the trading day almost mirrors the fall during the last hour of trading.

Let us compare the changes of the coffee price during the first 30 minutes and first hour of the trading day to the changes over the rest of the trading day:

The first 30 minutes of the trading day show a greater increase in the price compared to the first hour. The rest of the trading day in the first case shows a greater drop in the price compared to the second.

Let us compare changes in the price of coffee during the first 30 minutes and the first hour of the American trading session to the changes over the rest of the trading day:

We can notice a price fall during the American session, which is the most noticeable during the first half hour.

Detailed results are presented in the appendix:

XLSX (0.07 MB)Application to the article 'The rise and fall of coffee prices during the day.' eng.xlsx