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Euro poised to rally to 1.40 against US dollar – BCA Research

According to Jeremie Peloso, Chief Europe Strategist at financial advisory firm BCA Research, the euro is in the early stages of a multi-year bull market that could eventually take EUR/USD to 1.40.

Today at 9:44 AM
European Union. Retail Sales (MoM). The value of the indicator has decreased from 0.3% to -0.7%

A decrease of the indicator value may contribute to the fall in quotes of EUR.

7 July
ECB’s Makhlouf dismisses idea of euro overtaking dollar in global finance

Gabriel Makhlouf, a member of the European Central Bank's (ECB) Governing Council, says there is no way that the euro could replace the US dollar as the world’s top currency anytime soon.

7 July
ECB’s Makhlouf dismisses idea of euro overtaking dollar in global finance
German inflation may stabilize at higher level — Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank analysis reveals ongoing concerns about the long-term impact of one of Germany's most severe inflationary shocks in recorded history. While experts acknowledge that the peak of rapid, large-scale consumer price growth has passed, they remain cautious about future trends.

7 July
German inflation may stabilize at higher level — Deutsche Bank
The NYT sees Europe's potential to strengthen its position on the global stage

During the recent meeting, European officials discussed ways to enhance the region’s competitiveness relative to both the US and China. The NYT notes the debate centered on how President Trump’s policies have created an opportunity for Europe to strengthen its global position.

4 July
The NYT sees Europe's potential to strengthen its position on the global stage
Declining German factory orders signal persistent trade uncertainty

In May, Germany's factory orders fell by 1.4% compared to the previous month, marking the first decline in four months. The drop was sharper than economists polled by Bloomberg had expected.

4 July
Declining German factory orders signal persistent trade uncertainty
ECB's Elderson highlights climate impact on eurozone economy

Frank Elderson, a member of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Executive Board, stressed the need to factor in climate change consequences when shaping economic policy. He warned that ignoring environmental risks could trigger serious economic challenges.

4 July
ECB's Elderson highlights climate impact on eurozone economy
ECB officials say euro's appreciation may hurt exports

The single currency’s nearly 14% rise this year has helped curb inflation in the EU. However, further euro appreciation could push consumer prices below the ECB’s 2% target and hurt the competitiveness of export-oriented companies.

4 July
ECB officials say euro's appreciation may hurt exports
European Union. PPI (MoM). The value of the indicator has increased from -2.2% to -0.6%

An increase of the indicator value may contribute to the rise in quotes of EUR.

4 July
European Union. PPI (YoY). The value of the indicator has decreased from 0.7% to 0.3%

A decrease of the indicator value may contribute to the fall in quotes of EUR.

4 July
ECB officials wary of rising global trade uncertainty

In June, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the eighth time in a year. However, officials signal a pause in further monetary easing as EU inflation has reached the target level of 2% and uncertainty about US tariff policy persists.

4 July
ECB officials wary of rising global trade uncertainty

The European currency is one of the world's major monetary units. It has a crucial role to play in the global economy. Market participants constantly need to identify trends and forecast fluctuations in the euro exchange rate in order to make reasonable trading decisions.

Key drivers of the euro are the following:

  • Macroeconomic indicators such as consumer price indices (CPI), estimates of gross domestic product (GDP), and central bank decisions;
  • Political variables such as geopolitical stability and government policies.

Market manipulation by large investors has a significant impact on the exchange rate of the European currency. Their actions can both stabilize and greatly shake the money market. These may include:

  • large injections or withdrawals of currency from the market;
  • change in the general mood among investors, which often depends on economic and political conditions.

Investment activity monitoring can help to understand and predict trends in the movement of the European currency rates.

Forecasting the value of the euro is a challenging task. There are many reasons for this, including geopolitical and economic risks that make foreign exchange markets particularly susceptible to change. Minor political instability or financial crisis in certain countries may have a significant impact on the value of the European currency, emphasizing the need to carefully consider these factors when developing investment strategies.

Successful trading the Eurozone currency requires a comprehensive approach. Analyzing global political and economic circumstances, taking into account the influence of traders, and assessing risks are integral parts of the decision-making process for opening trading positions.