ANZ Bank: gold tends to be more valuable during recessions

According to strategists at ANZ Bank, gold prices tend to remain under downside pressure ahead of an economic downturn. However, recessions usually move gold prices up and make gold perform inversely to other markets, such as the stock market.

They expect the US economy to fall into a recession in 2023. The nation's GDP is seen declining to as much as 0.2% year-over-year and falling by 0.8% quarter-over-quarter in the third quarter. Current economic problems in European countries (geopolitical risks and energy crisis) are also increasing the chances of a recession. Such economic events tend to positively affect gold. 

Gold has poor performance ahead of an economic downturn, with an average return of 2% six months before a recession. It has an average return rate of 16% and is more valuable than stocks during a decline in economic activity. Gold also continues to rise six months after a recession.