Reuters: China's weak oil imports contradict OPEC demand growth forecasts

According to Reuters experts, the forecasts of international energy organizations on the state of the Chinese oil market do not coincide with reality.

The latest OPEC report indicates that in 2024, oil demand in China increased by 320 thousand barrels per day (bpd). However, actual oil imports to the country decreased by 210 thousand bpd.

The gap between forecasts and reality cannot be explained by other components of demand, such as imports of petroleum products and domestic production, Reuters notes. Crude oil output by local companies in China amounted to 4.24 million bpd (+1.4%), while fuel purchases fell by 1.0% last year.

According to the agency's calculations, China's oil reserves added about 1.15 million barrels per day in 2024, compared with 760 thousand bpd in 2023. 

OPEC forecasts that China's oil demand will grow by 310 thousand bpd in 2025. However, the commodity imports remain weak, with customs data showing 10.42 million bpd in the first two months of 2025. This is 370 thousand, or 3.4%, lower than the 10.79 million bpd for the same period in 2024.