Wall Street economists maintain forecasts of slowing US GDP growth despite tariff delay

Leading US economists kept their forecasts of a significant slowdown in economic growth in the country unchanged, despite the Trump administration's decision to postpone the introduction of large-scale tariffs. According to experts at Morgan Stanley and Barclays, the US GDP will only grow by 0.6% in 2025, and by 2026 it may show an increase up to 1.5%.

Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Financial Group, pointed out that the persistence of heavy tariffs can trigger a recession in the United States. He estimated that the current average tariff rate remains at a record high, exceeding the level seen at the start of Trump's presidency by more than 24 percentage points.

The recent decision of the US administration resulted in only a slight decrease in the effective average tariff rate, from 26.85% to 26.25%, as showed by a Bloomberg Economics analysis. At the same time, the increase in duties on Chinese goods has completely offset the suspension of tariffs on imports from other countries, keeping pressure on the US economy.