Probability of US recession has sharply increased — JPMorgan Chase assessment

Experts at JPMorgan Chase, analyzing market indicators, have observed a sharp rise in the probability of a recession in the United States, now nearing 80%. Particularly indicative is the Russell 2000 Index, which tracks smaller companies and is especially sensitive to economic fluctuations.

Upon examining various market indicators, the bank's strategists found a notable divergence between the expectations of shareholders and creditors. Despite creditors' optimism, the Trump administration's trade policies have led to a sharp decline in stock indices. According to JPMorgan, the debt securities market has not yet fully accounted for the rising recession risks.

The threat of a recession has increased following the escalation of trade tensions between the US and China. In forecasting further developments, the bank's economists have raised the probability of an economic downturn to between 60% and 80%.

JPMorgan expert Michael Feroli has revised his US GDP growth forecast from 1.3% to -0.3%, warning of potentially large-scale consequences of the current administration's trade policies.