Bloomberg forecasts US inflation to rise in April amid the impact of Trump’s tariff hikes

US inflation likely accelerated in April following a March slowdown, as higher tariffs on Chinese goods began pushing up prices. According to Bloomberg’s median economist forecast, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% month-over-month.

Bloomberg analysts note that Donald Trump’s tariffs could raise prices in import-heavy categories like toys and clothing, though retailers are struggling to pass on these costs without hurting demand.

Bank of America estimates that core goods inflation (excluding food and energy) increased 0.1% in April.

Meanwhile, economists are monitoring the US services sector as a gauge of discretionary spending. Citigroup reports that travel-related prices (airfare, car rentals) fell again in April, signaling weakening domestic demand.

Pantheon Macroeconomics expects services inflation to keep declining, potentially allowing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025, despite trade tariffs.