SocGen: the average oil price will be $98 in the first quarter of 2023 and $108 in the second

Societe Generale analysts have updated their forecast of Crude Oil prices. Their expectations are associated with maintaining a high level of prices in the first half of 2023 and a further decline to $93.5 in the fourth quarter of the coming year.

According to strategists, in the first quarter of the coming year, the average oil price will be around $98 per barrel. In the second quarter, the value of $108 per barrel will be reached. This is primarily due to the fact that China is open again, and anti-Russian sanctions have come into force. Analysts also added that oil prices will decline in the second half of next year. In the last quarter of 2023, they expect to see a mark of $93.5 per barrel. This opinion implies a lower risk premium as a result of factors such as sanctions against Russia, a downturn in economic activity amid the recession in the United States, and an unstable, phased opening of China.

As for 2024 and 2025, analysts predict oil prices to rise to $100 and $110 per barrel, respectively. This is due to the fact that oil reserves will still remain at a fairly low level. At the same time, a situation of significant backwardation may take place again.