OPEC+ unlikely to change its policy on February 1

OPEC+ countries are likely to leave oil production quotas unchanged at the meeting on February 1. It is driven by the fact that China is balancing between hopes for higher demand and concerns about inflation and the global economic downturn.

Five sources told Reuters that OPEC+ members will discuss the economic outlook and opportunities for increased oil demand from China. However, countries are unlikely to adjust current policies. The recovery in oil prices in recent weeks has made any change unlikely.

The United Arab Emirates' energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei reported that the oil market is in an optimal state now, echoing the remarks of his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak. They are both members of the OPEC+ Ministerial Committee, which is co-chaired by Novak himself and Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman.

The other OPEC+ source said that the international organization is somewhat comfortable by now, as the difficult time of the COVID pandemic is over. However, the geopolitical situation and the Chinese recovery are driving volatility.