BCA Research: stock market strategists are wrong about S&P 500 growth by year-end

As reported by Bloomberg, despite investor shock and uncertainty caused by US trade tariffs, most stock market strategists still expect the S&P 500 index to rise during the rest of 2025. However, according to Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, such optimism goes against historical facts.

Berezin is one of only two stock market strategists expecting the S&P 500 to decline by the end of the year, among more than two dozen specialists whose estimates are monitored by Bloomberg. Any rebound of the index, he believes, would be short-lived and have little impact on overall dynamics.

Last week, the S&P 500 showed strong performance. However, it still shows a decline of about 9% year-to-date amid the imposition of import tariffs in the US. Moreover, the index experienced a 15% drop for 2025 last Tuesday before a rebound on Thursday.

The 15% drop is historically significant, Berezin emphasizes. Since 1957, the S&P 500 has fallen by that amount in early April 16 times, and in only three instances has it recovered and finished December with a gain, according to data provided by Carson Group LLC.