UBS raises outlook for S&P 500 and expects it to rise nearly 10% through mid-2026

Analysts at UBS raised their targets for the S&P 500 index from 5,800 to 6,000 and set a June 2026 target of 6,400. Favorable first-quarter corporate earnings and hopes for stronger US GDP growth in the second half of the year contributed to the upgrade. 

The new targets assume the S&P 500 will rise 2.7% by the end of this year and 9.6% by the middle of next year.

UBS CEO David Lefkowitz decided to raise the targets despite recent downgrading of US equities from “attractive” to “neutral”. According to the company's head, the organization doesn't see US stocks in a negative light and expects the bull market to continue. 

Nevertheless, Lefkowitz emphasized the importance of the American economy adapting to higher tariffs. The transition period required to do so could be marked by some weakening of US economic data, which could be a headwind for equities.

However, Lefkowitz said that while the economy may weaken somewhat in the coming months due to US trade policy adjustments, UBS analysts do not see a significant downside risk for the S&P 500.