Tariff risks already priced into US stocks — Yahoo Finance

Despite signs of a cooling labor market and slowing economic activity in the US, Wall Street remains confident and doesn’t expect a summer slowdown for American stocks. Several strategists recently defended their year-end targets for the S&P 500 in the 6,300–6,500 range. They believe the key risks, including those tied to tariffs, are already priced in, according to Yahoo Finance. 

As Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson pointed out, the stock market has historically been a leading indicator, anticipating shifts ahead of official data. Recent figures underscore that trend: May’s ADP report revealed the slowest pace of US job growth in two years, while new jobless claims climbed to their highest level since late 2024.

Goldman Sachs research reveals a persistent pattern in post-crisis recoveries. They consistently begin with improvements in "soft" indicators—business climate and consumer sentiment. Fundamentals like employment and GDP typically follow with a lag. Current trends align perfectly with this model, evidenced by the US leading economic index rising while inflation expectations moderate.