After a challenging and volatile first half of the year, long-term trend followers have resumed buying US equities, according to analysts at Bank of America Securities.
The SG CTA index snapped a four-month losing streak in June, posting a 93 basis-point gain for the month. However, it remains in negative territory for the first half of 2025, with a decline of 7.6%, BofA notes.
The market situation has been highly uncertain over recent months. For most of this period, traders maintained short positions on the US dollar and long positions on gold. However, their ability to adhere to the strategy was frequently disrupted by fluctuations in oil prices, Treasury yields, and volatile equity market conditions.
Current trends indicate that short-term profit-oriented investors have already accumulated significant long positions. They are betting on gains in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and Nikkei 225. Meanwhile, investors focused on medium- and long-term prospects have yet to fully engage. BofA predicts their activity will increase this week.