Citi expects copper demand to decline in second half of 2025

Citi analysts predict that copper prices will come under pressure in the second half of 2025 due to a slowdown in inventory accumulation related to US tariffs and weakening Chinese demand.

The bank forecasts a three-month price drop to $8,800 per ton, citing an expected reduction in excess imports to the US and slower growth in Chinese copper consumption.

Data from Citi's Global Copper End-Use Tracker (GCET) in May showed a sharp 16% increase in demand for the metal compared to last year. This increase was driven by record solar panel installations in China ahead of legislative changes in June. However, Citi deemed the increase abnormal. The bank expects copper consumption in the solar energy sector to stop growing in June.

Additionally, Citi said that President Trump's announcement of a planned 50% tariff on copper starting August 1 should curb additional supplies of the red metal to the US. The bank estimates that, by the end of July, the country will have received approximately 500,000 tons of excess copper imports. This will offset demand for metal imports into the US for the rest of 2025.