16 July
JPMorgan Chase upgrades US economic growth forecast for 2025
Following a short-term trade pact between the US and China, Michael Feroli, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase, has revised his forecast for American GDP in 2025. The expected recession has shifted to a growth projection of 0.6%, up 0.4% from previous estimates.
Now that the US has eased its tariffs on China, the expert believes the chances of a national economic downturn are less than 50%. Moreover, core inflation, which excludes energy and food costs, is likely to hit 3.5% instead of 4%.
Feroli has also adjusted how he expects the Federal Reserve to act in the coming months. Seeing the labor market to weaken less, he has pushed back the timeline for cutting interest rates in the US. The new projections suggest that monetary policy will change in December this year instead of September as previously anticipated.
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