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A decrease of the indicator value may contribute to the fall in quotes of USD.

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Markets await multiple Fed rate cuts amid US trade policy

Traders are predicting five interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) before the end of the year, Bloomberg reports. Such expectations have been formed due to the aggressive tariff measures introduced by the Trump administration.

7 April 2025
Markets await multiple Fed rate cuts amid US trade policy
Goldman Sachs boosts US recession risk on new tariff wave

Goldman Sachs now expects the US GDP to rise only 0.5% in the period from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2025. Besides, the analysts raised the probability of a 12-month recession in the country from 35% to 45%.

7 April 2025
Goldman Sachs boosts US recession risk on new tariff wave
US Treasury Secretary downplays threat of recession in America — CNBC

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant downplayed concerns about a recession and market fluctuations, asserting that President Donald Trump's policies are strengthening the nation's long-term economic outlook.

7 April 2025
US Treasury Secretary downplays threat of recession in America — CNBC
US inflation report may show negative impact of Trump's tariffs on prices — Bloomberg

Overall US inflation probably slowed slightly last month. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecasting that the nation's consumer price index rose 0.1% in March. That would be the smallest increase since July.

7 April 2025
US inflation report may show negative impact of Trump's tariffs on prices — Bloomberg
United States. Unemployment Rate. The value of the indicator has increased from 4.1% to 4.2%

An increase of the indicator value may contribute to the fall in quotes of USD.

4 April 2025
United States. Nonfarm Payrolls. The value of the indicator has increased from 117K to 228K

An increase of the indicator value may contribute to the rise in quotes of USD.

4 April 2025
Wall Street disagrees on impact of Trump's tariff policy on Fed's interest rate decisions

Bloomberg notes Wall Street is divided over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future steps amid President Trump's escalating trade policies. Nevertheless, all experts agree on the threat of stagflation.

4 April 2025
Wall Street disagrees on impact of Trump's tariff policy on Fed's interest rate decisions
JPMorgan chief economist warns of recession risks due to Trump's trade policies

JPMorgan's Head of Economic Research Bruce Kasman expressed concern about a significant increase in the likelihood of a global recession to 60% this year. In his opinion, the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration represent the largest tax burden for American households and companies.

4 April 2025
JPMorgan chief economist warns of recession risks due to Trump's trade policies
Dallas Fed warns of weakening economic outlook in Texas

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has issued a warning about a significant decline in Texas's economic outlook. As the largest trading state in the US, Texas is grappling with concerns stemming from Trump’s tariff policies, which have caused businesses to worry about rising production costs.

4 April 2025
Dallas Fed warns of weakening economic outlook in Texas
Bloomberg poll: Trump's tariffs increase recession risks in US

After Donald Trump's announcement of new tariffs, Bloomberg conducted a poll among 54 analysts on April 2–3. An overwhelming majority (about 92%) believe that the new measures of the US administration increase the risks for economic growth in the country in the next 12 months.

4 April 2025
Bloomberg poll: Trump's tariffs increase recession risks in US

The dollar is the monetary unit of the United States (US). It is also used as the official currency by some other countries (Ecuador, Zimbabwe, El Salvador). The dollar holds a leading position in the world economy.

At the moment, the dollar dominates the system of international settlements with almost 50% share (the euro ranks second with less than 25%). Meanwhile, the dollar's dominance is even more pronounced in the financial sector, on the foreign exchange market, and in the government reserves.

The US currency (USD) quotes, as well as those of its foreign counterparts, depend primarily on the economic and political situation in the issuing country. The US authorities, such as the Federal Reserve System (the Fed) and the Department of the Treasury, influence the dollar exchange rate by changing their monetary, fiscal, budget, and tax policies. 

Moreover, the value of the dollar may be significantly affected by the latest news and the international situation. Global economic problems and rising geopolitical tensions have historically been favorable for the US currency, as investors consider it one of the major safe-haven assets, along with gold. In contrast, during periods of strong economic growth and a relatively calm global environment, the demand for the dollar tend to reduce.