4 April 2025 | Other

UK tax hikes risk undermining BoE's inflation fight

UK tax hikes risk undermining BoE's inflation fight

The UK government's tax reforms, announced by finance minister Rachel Reeves, present fresh challenges for the Bank of England (BoE). Set to take effect next week, the increased employer National Insurance contributions risk both fueling inflation and complicating the central bank's plans for monetary policy easing, according to Reuters.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has indicated his intentions to keep cutting interest rates, following three modest reductions since August. Last month, the central bank warned that escalating global trade tensions, fueled by recent US tariff increases, could potentially slow UK GDP growth and ease inflationary pressures.

However, businesses surveyed by the central bank warn the tax reforms will likely trigger price increases as companies seek to protect profit margins. Rob Wood, a former Bank of England economist, argues the regulator is underestimating the inflationary impact of Reeves' measures, forecasting CPI could surge above 4% by year-end from current levels just under 3%.

Anton Volkov MarketCheese
Period: 14.05.2026 Expectation: 6400 pips
SPX bulls target $7,200
Yesterday at 10:48 AM 22
Period: 07.05.2026 Expectation: 103 pips
Invest in ETHUSD with $2,350 target if key support holds post-correction
Yesterday at 09:32 AM 29
Gold buy
Period: 14.05.2026 Expectation: 190 pips
Go long on gold with $4,750 in sight
Yesterday at 08:42 AM 25
Period: 07.05.2026 Expectation: 1300 pips
Buying USDJPY with 162.000 target as BOJ offers yen no lifeline
Yesterday at 08:23 AM 14
Period: 31.05.2026 Expectation: 1000 pips
Go long on AUDCAD toward 0.9900
Yesterday at 07:52 AM 10
Period: 31.05.2026 Expectation: 500 pips
Buy Brent crude up to $115.0
Yesterday at 07:52 AM 22
Go to forecasts