4 April 2025 | Other

UK tax hikes risk undermining BoE's inflation fight

UK tax hikes risk undermining BoE's inflation fight

The UK government's tax reforms, announced by finance minister Rachel Reeves, present fresh challenges for the Bank of England (BoE). Set to take effect next week, the increased employer National Insurance contributions risk both fueling inflation and complicating the central bank's plans for monetary policy easing, according to Reuters.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has indicated his intentions to keep cutting interest rates, following three modest reductions since August. Last month, the central bank warned that escalating global trade tensions, fueled by recent US tariff increases, could potentially slow UK GDP growth and ease inflationary pressures.

However, businesses surveyed by the central bank warn the tax reforms will likely trigger price increases as companies seek to protect profit margins. Rob Wood, a former Bank of England economist, argues the regulator is underestimating the inflationary impact of Reeves' measures, forecasting CPI could surge above 4% by year-end from current levels just under 3%.

Anton Volkov MarketCheese
Period: 04.10.2026 Expectation: 3800 pips
Go short on GBPUSD with downside potential to 1.31500
Yesterday at 09:37 AM 19
Period: 18.09.2026 Expectation: 600 pips
Buy Brent crude up to $100
Yesterday at 06:36 AM 21
Period: 03.10.2026 Expectation: 5100 pips
Sell USDJPY down to 152.00
03 September 2026 32
Period: 03.10.2026 Expectation: 175 pips
Invest in ETHUSD up to $2,565
03 September 2026 21
Period: 30.09.2026 Expectation: 13000 pips
Go long on Brent crude with $99.50 target
02 September 2026 35
Expectation: 1200 pips
SPX sell-off targets 7,500
02 September 2026 26
Go to forecasts