4 April 2025 | Other

UK tax hikes risk undermining BoE's inflation fight

UK tax hikes risk undermining BoE's inflation fight

The UK government's tax reforms, announced by finance minister Rachel Reeves, present fresh challenges for the Bank of England (BoE). Set to take effect next week, the increased employer National Insurance contributions risk both fueling inflation and complicating the central bank's plans for monetary policy easing, according to Reuters.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has indicated his intentions to keep cutting interest rates, following three modest reductions since August. Last month, the central bank warned that escalating global trade tensions, fueled by recent US tariff increases, could potentially slow UK GDP growth and ease inflationary pressures.

However, businesses surveyed by the central bank warn the tax reforms will likely trigger price increases as companies seek to protect profit margins. Rob Wood, a former Bank of England economist, argues the regulator is underestimating the inflationary impact of Reeves' measures, forecasting CPI could surge above 4% by year-end from current levels just under 3%.

Anton Volkov MarketCheese
Period: 26.07.2026 Expectation: 1600 pips
Buying AUDCAD from support level
Today at 10:41 AM 17
Period: 03.07.2026 Expectation: 1310 pips
GBPUSD is still poised for further downside
Today at 10:12 AM 17
Brent sell
Period: 03.07.2026 Expectation: 500 pips
Higher supply and weaker demand is likely to push Brent into red zone by weekend
Today at 08:09 AM 13
Period: 26.07.2026 Expectation: 3100 pips
Invest in USDCAD up to 1.45000
Today at 07:22 AM 14
Period: 02.07.2026 Expectation: 19500 pips
Selling ETHUSD with $1,585 in view following short-lived recovery
Yesterday at 11:10 AM 34
Period: 31.07.2026 Expectation: 220 pips
Buying AUDCAD up to 0.9837
Yesterday at 09:57 AM 14
Go to forecasts