Apollo Global Management predicts US recession as early as summer due to tariff policy

Chief economist at Apollo Global Management, Torsten Slok, shared a detailed analysis of potential impacts from the US administration’s trade policy. He estimates that first signs of a shortage of Chinese goods could emerge as early as May, and the US economy risks sliding into a recession in the summer of 2025. 

As noted by Slok, the drop in shipments from China since early April have initiated a chain of events affecting various sectors of the economy. As imports began to fall, retailers faced a shortage of goods and posted declining sales. This prompted trading companies to optimize costs, primarily by laying off staff. At the same time, not only retailers have been hit, but also the entire trucking industry, with large-scale layoffs expected.

The statistics confirms the expert's negative expectations and shows a sharp drop in new orders for businesses, deteriorating profit forecasts, as well as reduced companies' capital spending plans. Yet, according to Slok, stocks built up before the tariffs were imposed can temporarily relieve the situation by keeping goods on the shelves for longer.