Credit Agricole expert believes in dollar recovery by mid-2025

Valentin Marinov, one of the leading experts at Credit Agricole, considers the dollar's fall to be temporary. The American currency's decline was largely caused by Donald Trump's trade restrictions and the following turmoil in the markets. However, a 90-day pause in the implementation of most tariffs should have reassured investors and supported the dollar, the strategist suggests.

Despite the dollar's weak start to the year and market participants' loss of interest in using it as a safe-haven asset, Trump's trade policy will mostly hit Europe and Japan, which are more export-oriented, according to Marinov. He believes their economic performance could slow much more than the US economy. The yen will fall to 148 per dollar by mid-2025, while the euro will drop to $1.08.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is near a 6-month low, plunging by 6.7% in 2025. This is the worst result since the gauge was launched in 2005. Yet, Marinov is not giving up on his forecasts. He estimates that by the mid-year, the dollar will regain its former strength.

However, not all analysts share Marinov's view. Many investors are shifting away from the US market in search of more reliable alternatives.